Under policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear power could be an important source of low-carbon electricity, for example, providing 40 percent of U.S. electricity and more than 20 percent of global electricity by mid-century.5,6
Electric power generation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel combustion. In the United States, electricity generation is responsible for roughly one third of total GHG emissions (80 percent of which come from coal use).7 Globally, electricity generation accounts for more than 27 percent of total CO2 emissions and more than one fifth of total GHG emissions.8 Given the magnitude of GHG emissions from the electricity sector, low-carbon electricity generation technologies are crucial for achieving the significant GHG emission reductions necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.
Nuclear power is one option in the portfolio of low-carbon electricity generation technologies, which also includes renewables (e.g., wind, solar, and biomass) and fossil fuels coupled with carbon capture and storage. Nuclear power emits no GHGs from electric power generation, and its overall lifecycle GHG emissions profile is low and similar to that of solar power.9 In addition, nuclear power is already a widely deployed technology and can—like coal-fueled generation—provide reliable baseload electric power.
Currently, nuclear power is by far the largest source of low-carbon electricity in the United States. In 2008, nuclear power provided one fifth of total U.S. electricity, which was more than twice as much as generated from all renewable sources (including conventional hydropower).10 The United States has 104 operating nuclear reactors at 65 plants in 31 states.11 Globally, nuclear power generates roughly 15 percent of total electricity.12
Current nuclear power technology harnesses the energy released by nuclear fission. Atomic nuclei consist of protons and neutrons held together by a strong energy bond. In nuclear fission, a neutron strikes the nucleus of a very heavy atom and splits it apart into lighter atoms, releasing additional neutrons and energy as well. These neutrons, in turn, can fission other atoms. Under precise, controlled conditions, this nuclear fission process can occur as a continuous chain reaction that releases heat in useful amounts.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that under “business as usual” nuclear power in the United States will grow by roughly 10 percent between 2009 and 2030, which is an average annual growth rate of only 0.5 percent, half the projected rate of growth of overall electricity generation.26
By contrast, EIA’s recent modeling analysis of the 2009 House GHG cap-and-trade bill (H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act) projected that nuclear generation would be nearly double current levels by 2030 under cap and trade.27 Similarly, analysis of H.R. 2454 by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimated that nuclear power would grow nearly five times as fast under cap and trade as under “business as usual” and provide 30 percent of total U.S. electricity in 2030 and 40 percent in 2050.28 In a sensitivity model run, EPA found that holding nuclear power to its “business-as-usual” level under cap and trade increased the projected GHG allowance price (a measure of the cost to society of achieving GHG emission reduction goals) by 15 percent.29
As one indicator of the significant potential role for nuclear power in global GHG abatement, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that nuclear power could provide 6 percent of energy-related emission reductions compared to “business as usual” by 2050.30 IEA projected that, in this scenario, global nuclear generation would more than triple from 2005 to 2050 (compared to growth of 41 percent in the “business-as-usual” scenario).
Nuclear power requires very large upfront capital investments in constructing the power plant (e.g., a new 1 gigawatt nuclear power plant might cost $6 billion including the cost of financing). For nuclear power, the capital cost of the plant constitutes roughly three fourths of the levelized cost of electricity, with fuel and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs making up the remainder of the cost in roughly equal proportions.31,32 In contrast, capital costs account for roughly 40 percent of the levelized cost of electricity from a new coal power plant, and fuel costs account for about 80 percent of the levelized cost of electricity from a natural gas power plant.33 In short, nuclear plants are relatively expensive to build but relatively inexpensive to operate.
The cost of new U.S. nuclear power plants is uncertain due to a long hiatus in the construction of new nuclear plants in the United States and recent rapid escalation with subsequent signs of decline in all power plant capital costs.34 During the 1980s and early ‘90s, new nuclear power plants experienced long delays in construction schedules and massive cost overruns, which makes potential lenders see new nuclear power plants as riskier than other power plant investments and thus makes new nuclear plant construction more expensive to finance. Given the capital-intensity of nuclear power, financing is challenging for new plants.
Recent studies estimate that electricity from a new nuclear power plants would be roughly one third more expensive than electricity from new coal or natural gas power plants—where the risk premium associated with financing a new nuclear plant is a primary driver of the cost difference.35,36 However, putting a price on GHG emissions can make nuclear power less costly than electricity from fossil fuel. For example, one study estimated that at a carbon price of $20 per metric ton of CO2, new nuclear power is less expensive than power from new coal plants, and at a carbon price of about $45 per metric ton of CO2, new nuclear power would be less expensive than electricity from existing coal-fired power plants.37
The once-through nuclear fuel cycle is currently the least costly approach to nuclear power.38
No new nuclear plants have been ordered in the United States since 1978, and no U.S. plant has been completed that was ordered after 1973.39
Today, there are more than 50 plants under construction around the world in a dozen countries, principally China, India, Korea, and Russia.40,41 China, which currently has 11 operational reactors, has stated ambitious nuclear expansion plans for the next 20 years.42
The Energy Policy Act of 1992 overhauled the nuclear licensing process, which used to require two licenses—one to build the plant and another to operate it. Under the new process the NRC can: 1) pre-approve a prospective site for a new nuclear plant, 2) certify a new reactor design, and 3) issue a single combined construction and operating license (COL).43
Whereas the build-out of the existing U.S. nuclear fleet saw a large number of companies building a variety of idiosyncratic nuclear plant designs with a regulatory licensing process that allowed for significant delays, the new wave of potential new nuclear plants in the United States is foreseen to include a small number of firms with nuclear power experience building a limited number of standardized plant designs under a new licensing framework that front-loads much of the regulatory risk.
In the United States, 17 applications for COLs for 26 new reactors are under review by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)—all submitted since 2007.44 Preliminary work required before construction is underway for many of these plants such as design, licensing applications development, and procurement of long-lead items; however, most firms have yet to obtain financing and make firm commitments to construction.45
The process of licensing and building the first few new nuclear plants is expected to take approximately 9-10 years, with the nuclear industry expecting 4-8 new plants to start commercial operation 2016.46
Presently, the United States is pursuing a once-through nuclear fuel cycle. A fully closed fuel cycle would require not just advanced reprocessing and recycling technology but also the capability to manufacture a new type of reactor fuel from the reprocessing outputs.47 According to the nuclear industry, the new generation of reactors necessary for a fully closed fuel cycle is decades away from commercial development.48
Climate Change 101: Technology, 2009.
A Performance Standards Approach to Reducing CO2 Emissions from Electric Power Plants, 2009.
The U.S. Electric Power Sector and Climate Change Mitigation, 2005.
Battelle Memorial Institute, Nuclear Energy, 2007.
Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Nuclear Power’s Role in Generating Electricity, 2008.
Congressional Research Service (CRS)
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Keystone Center, Nuclear Power Joint Fact-Finding, 2007.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, Disposition of High-Level Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel: Continuing Societal and Technical Challenges, 2001.
Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI).
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
1U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2008, 2009, see Table 8.2a.
2 EIA, International Energy Annual 2006, 2008, see Table 2.7.
3 EIA, International Energy Annual 2006, 2008, see Table 6.3.
4 EIA, International Energy Annual 2006, 2008, see Table 2.7.
5 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Analysis of H.R. 2454 in the 111th Congress, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, June 2009, ADAGE Model Scenario 2.
6 International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050, 2008, BLUE Map Scenario, see Table 2.5.
7 EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007, Tables ES-7 and 2-13, 2009.
8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), "Introduction." In Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 9 Fthenakis, VM and HC Kim, “Greenhouse-Gas Emissions from Solar Electric- and Nuclear Power: A Life-Cycle Study,” Energy Policy 35: 2549-2557, 2007.
10 EIA, Annual Energy Review 2008, Table 8.2a.
11 Holt, Mark, Advanced Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Technologies: Outlook and Policy Options, Congressional Research Service (CRS), Jul 2008. All of 104 U.S. nuclear reactors were ordered between 1963 and 1973.
12 International Energy Agency (IEA), Key World Energy Statistics 2008.
13 For a helpful overview of the basics of nuclear power, see EIA’s Introduction to Nuclear Power.
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), The Future of Nuclear Power, 2003. For a helpful overview of nuclear fuel and the nuclear fuel cycle, see “Appendix Chapter 1 – Nuclear Fuel Cycle Primer.”
15 Government Accountability Office (GAO), Global Nuclear Energy Partnership: DOE Should Reassess Its Approach to Designing and Building Spent Nuclear Fuel Recycling Facilities, April 2008.
16 MIT, 2003.
17 Holt, July 2008.
18 Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Nuclear Energy Outlook 2008. About 20 percent of current nuclear plants today use heavy water as a moderator and coolant (mostly in Canada and India), while the United Kingdom has 18 gas-cooled reactors.
19 In a BWR, the water heated by the energy released during the nuclear fission chain reaction in the reactor core turns directly into steam to power the turbine-generator (for an explanation of a BWR, see EIA’s Boiling-Water Reactor). In a PWR, the water passing through the reactor core is kept under pressure so that it does not turn to steam but rather is used to exchange heat with a separate water loop to create steam and power a turbine-generator (an explanation of a PWR, see EIA’s Pressurized-Water Reactor and Reactor Vessel).
20 EIA, U.S. Nuclear Reactors.
21 NEA, 2008.
22 Gen IV International Forum.
23 MIT, 2003.
24 MIT, Update of the MIT 2003 Future of Nuclear Power, May 2009.
25 Holt, July 2008.
26 EIA, An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook, April 2009. In the reference case EPAct05 tax incentives do incentivize some new nuclear units; an estimated seven new nuclear power plants are completed through 2030.
27 EIA, Energy Market and Economic Impacts of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, August 2009, “Basic” policy case.
28 EPA, Analysis of H.R. 2454 in the 111th Congress, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, June 2009, ADAGE Model Scenario 2. Note that EPA limited the growth in nuclear power to about 150 percent from 2005 to 2050, a limit that constrained the modeling results.
29 EPA, Analysis of H.R. 2454 in the 111th Congress, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, June 2009, ADAGE Model Scenarios 2 and 5.
30 IEA, 2008. IEA developed the BLUE Map roadmap for achieving a 50 percent reduction below current GHG emission levels in order to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at 450ppm.
31 The levelized cost of electricity is an economic assessment of the cost of electricity generation from a representative generating unit of a particular technology type (e.g. wind, coal) including all the costs over its lifetime: initial investment, operations and maintenance, cost of fuel, and cost of capital.
32 Du, Yangbo and John Parsons, Update on the Cost of Nuclear Power, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, 2009, see Figure 1.
33 Du and Parsons, 2009.
34 IHS CERA, “IHS CERA Power Capital Costs Index Shows Construction Costs Falling for All Types of New Power Plants,” Press Release, 23 June 2009.
35 Du and Parsons, 2009.
36 Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Nuclear Power’s Role in Generating Electricity, 2008.
37 CBO, 2008.
38 MIT, 2009.
39 National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP), Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America’s Energy Challenges, Dec 2004.
40 MIT, 2009. The MIT update notes that in the United States since 2003 one shutdown reactor (Browns Ferry I) has been refurbished and restarted and one partly complete reactor (Watts Bar 2) is now being completed. The 52 nuclear plants under construction around the world are distributed as follows: China (16), Russia (9), India (6), Korea (5), Bulgaria (2), Taiwan (2), Ukraine (2), Japan (2), Argentina (1), Finland (1) France (1), Iran (1), Pakistan (1), Slovak Republic (1), and the United States (1).
41 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Power Reactor Information System (PRIS).
42 Xu, Wan, “China to Erect Nuclear Reactors to Match U.S.,” Wall Street Journal, 27 May 2009.
43 Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), Status and Outlook for Nuclear Energy in the United States, May 2009.
44 NEI, May 2009.
45 MIT, 2009.
46 NEI, May 2009. NEI reports that this 9-10 year process breaks down as follows: approximately two years to prepare an application to the NRC for a COL, approximately three and a half years for NRC review and approval of the COL, and 4-5 years for construction.
47 NEI, Advanced Fuel-Cycle Technologies Hold Promise for Used Fuel Management Program, Jan 2009.
48 NEI, Jan 2009.
49 MIT, 2009.
50 MIT, 2003.
51 The United States has built and operates the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, a geological repository for defense-related transuranic waste.
52 NEI, “Sweden Picks Location for Its Used Fuel Repository,” Nuclear Energy Insight, July 2009.
53 Vogel, Steve, “Controversy Over Yucca Mountain May Be Ending,” Washington Post, 4 Mar 2009.
54 Vogel, 2009.
55 Holt, Mark, Nuclear Waste Disposal: Alternatives to Yucca Mountain, CRS, Feb 2009.
56 Wald, Matthew, “As Nuclear Waste Languishes, Expense to U.S. Rises,” New York Times, 17 Feb 2008.
57 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), “Final Update of the Commissions Waste Confidence Decision,” June 2009.
58 NEI, “State Bills Promote New Nuclear Plants,” May 2008.
59 Directors of DOE National Laboratories, A Sustainable Energy Future: The Essential Role of Nuclear Energy, Aug 2008.
60 Klein, Dale, “Perspectives and Challenges of the Nuclear Renaissance,” Address by NRC Chairman to the American Nuclear Society, Raleigh, NC, 31 January 2008.
61 NEI, “New Nuclear Plants Create Opportunities for Expanding US Manufacturing,” August 2008.
62 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), DOE NP2010 Nuclear Power Plant Construction Infrastructure Assessment, 2005.
63 Keystone Center, Nuclear Power Joint Fact-Finding, 2007.
64 MIT, 2003. See the MIT report for examples of fuel cycle facility incidents.
65 Keystone, 2007.
66 Keystone, 2007.
67 Holt, July 2008.
68 Nuclear Energy Study Group of the American Physical Society (APS) Panel on Public Affairs, Nuclear Power and Proliferation Resistance: Securing Benefits, Limiting Risk, 2005.
69 APS, 2005.
70 For more information on CO2 emission performance standards for electric power plants, see Rubin, Edward, A Performance Standards Approach to Reducing CO2 Emissions from Electric Power Plants, prepared for the Pew Center, June 2009.
71 NEI, May 2009.
72 Roy, Rukmini et al., Loan Guarantees for Advanced Nuclear Energy Facilities: Bankers' Viewpoints on DOE Implementing Regulations, Letter to DOE Secretary Bodman, March 2007.
73 NEI, May 2009.
74 Chu, Steven, Testimony before the House Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development, FY 2010 Appropriations Hearing, 3 Jun 2009.
75 MIT, 2003.
76 NCEP, 2004.
77 Holt, July 2008.
78 Directors of DOE National Laboratories, 2008.
79 APS, 2005.
80 MIT, 2003.
81 NCEP, 2004.
82 Directors of DOE National Laboratories, 2008.
83 Bender, Bryan, “Obama Seeks Global Uranium Fuel Bank,” Boston Globe, 8 June 2009.
84 APS, Readiness of the U.S. Nuclear Workforce for 21st Century Challenges, 2008.